The Weinsteins Controlled the Film Winners While the Golden Globes did Pretty well by TV

Tonight was the anything unpredictable could happen, and not much really did.  Ricky Gervais started out the evening with a lot of laughs, which included jokes at the expense of Jodie Foster and her beaver, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.  To me this show is not always about host, while Gervais does add to evening.  This award show is about the celebrities being able to drink and giving entertaining speeches.  Gervais hosting does add to that mentality.

On to why I watch these shows, the awards themselves.  My friend Keith and I decided to do shots every time we did not predict the right winner, I only had to do 5 shots (most of them because of the TV categories).  While the game was not as much fun, partly because I did not have to drink as much.  I wish the show provided a few more surprises in the film categories.  It seems as though the Weinstein company is putting a lot of weight behind its films, especially The Artist for Best Picture.

Ricky Gervais may have been right all along about the HFPA taking bribes or being crooked because the Weinstein Company has seemed to have a hold on the winners for the last two years.  This year the Weinstein Company had six major wins in the film categories.  The Weinstein's swept the Comedy/Musical category with The Artist taking Best Comedy/Musical and its star Jean Dujardin winning Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, and the film won for Best Original Score. The Artist won the most trophies for the night.  Michelle Williams took home the trophy for Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical.  Williams was not the only person who benefited from the Weinstein name, Meryl Streep beat out her tight competitor Viola Davis for Best Actress in a Drama.  I am predicting Davis will still win the SAG thus making predicting the best Actress category incredibly difficult.  The Weinstein's did also help cause another upset in the Best Song category, Madonna won the prize for her film W.E., the song is ruled ineligible for the Oscars.

While The Artist was a solid film and it is the clear front runner with its win tonight, I can not see mainstream movie audiences embracing a silent film.  With a lack of popular audience appeal (this influences voters to an extent)  I have a hard time believing this film will win the Best Picture award, btu I could be wrong.  I also have a hard time believing The Descendants can win.  The Descendants won the award for Best Film (Drama) and Best Actor in Drama.  While I think Clooney will win, I also think Brad Pitt has a strong shot.  Clooney and Pitt seemed to show more affection for each other than I have ever seen two actors show.  Clooney has his Oscar and may champion for his friend to get his first win.

The biggest  surprise came in the Best Director category, although I predicted it, Martin Scorsese won for Hugo.  This will help Hugo a lot!  This film could be a major spoiler.  Midnight in Paris also could be a spoiler, it wont Best Screenplay Award.  The reason why I do not think Paris will win is because its director just does not show up to award shows.  Meanwhile the winners in supporting categories were cemented tonight and they will be Christopher Plummer for Beginners and Octavia Spencer from The Help.  The only thing I predicted wrong was the Best Song winner.

In the TV world the Globes stuck to mainly honoring new shows.  In the Drama categories the brilliant new Showtime show, Homeland won Best Drama Series and Claire Danes won for Best Actress.  Meanwhile Kelsey Grammer won Best Drama Actor for the Starz show Boss.  The comedy categories picked two winners from shows in their first year on HBO and Showtime.  Laura Dern won for Enlightened which was the only show picked up by HBO recently because of their Globe nominations.  Matt LeBlanc won for basically playing himself in the Showtime show Episodes.  Modern Family was the only returning show that won a prize at the Globes, it won Best Comedy Series.

In the movie/miniseries category, Downton Abbey won the top prize.  Kate Winslet won the trophy for Lead Actress in a movie/miniseries for Mildred Pierce, and Idris Elba won the Lead Actor Prize for Luther.

My one pet peeve about the Globes is that they lump the supporting actors from everything in one category, mainly in order to cutdown on awards to present.  I would not have them do this in the film categories, but the TV and movie/mini-series awards should be separate.  In recent years the stars of TV series have dominated.  This year continued that pattern Peter Dinklage won for Game of Thrones and Jessica Lange won for American Horror Story.  I did not predict Dern, Lange, Grammer, or Homeland to win.

Overall the show and the winners were predictable, but it was worth a drinking game.  I have to start getting worse at picking or my friend and I need to come up with a better game while watching this show.

My one pet

Golden Globe Winner Predictions (TV)

I decided to post my television predictions in a different post, namely because this website was being difficult-I will not give any rationale to the winners here.  The HFPA has their own weird way of picking winners in the TV categories, but here are my best guesses.

Best Drama
American Horror Story
Boardwalk Empire
Boss
Game of Thrones
Homeland

My Prediction-Game of Thrones

Best Actor in a Drama
Steve Buscemi-Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer-Boss
Jeremy Irons-The Borgias
Damien Lewis-Homeland

My Prediction-Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad


Best Actress in a Drama
Claire Danes-Homeland
Mirielle Enos-The Killing
Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife
Madeline Stowe-Revenge
Callie Thorne-Necessary Roughness

My Predictions-Claire Danes-Homeland

Best Comedy or Musical Series
Enlightened
Episodes
Glee
Modern Family
The New Girl

Prediction-Modern Family

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock
David Duchovny-Californication
Johnny Gallecki-The Big Bang Theory
Thomas Jane-Hung
Matt LeBlanc-Episodes

My Prediction-Matt LeBlanc-Episodes

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Laura Dern-Enlightened
Zooey Deschanel-The New Girl
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Laura Linney-The Big C
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

My Prediction-Zooey Deschanel-The New Girl


Miniseries or Movie-Downton Abbey
Best Actor in a Miniseries or Movie-Idris Elba-Luther
Best Actress in a Miniseries or Movie-Kate Winslet-Mildred Pierce
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, or Movie-Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Movie-Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

Golden Globe Winner Predictions (Film)

Well I am in New York City for a long weekend, but I need to take time to predict the winners for tonight's Golden Globe ceremony.

Best Picture (Drama)

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

My Predictions-The Descendants, with reservations.  The Globes tend to pick their most nominated films, but from what I have heard the Globes loved Hugo.  I think Hugo has a shot here, but I will stick with the safe bet of The Descendants. 

Best Picture Comedy or Musical
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight In Paris
My Week with Marilyn

Prediction: The Artist- I think they will want to rubber stamp this film, but this is not a done deal.  Midnight in Paris has a shot, but I think if the Globes pick a different film from The Artist they will pick Bridesmaids.

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

My Prediction-Hugo-I think they they will give this to Marty, I am a little torn on who they will pick for best Drama between Hugo and The Descendants.  I do not think people like The Descendants as much as we think.  I pick Marty here, but I did that for the Critics choice too and Hazanavicius won, which is the other option.

Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

My Prediction-Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady-I think the Globes will rubber stamp Streep.  Davis could win, but I have a feeling she will win at SAG, while Meryl and Williams winning here, thus making this a tougher race to predict

Best Actor, Drama
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

My Prediction-George Clooney-The Descendants-They will honor George Clooney here, but I still have a sneaking suspicion Brad Pitt is going to creep up and potentially take away the win from his best pal.

Best Actress Comedy or MusicalJodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage

My Prediction-Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn-Easiest category to predict, but Theron is the one with the real comedic chops.

Best Actor Comedy or Musical
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Joseph Gordon Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

My Prediction-Jean Dujardin-The Artist-Another near lock, but if anyone will spoil is Joseph Gordon Levitt, a name the HFPA know is on the rise in Hollywood.

Best Actor Supporting
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

My Prediction-Christopher Plummer-Beginners-This is another easy prediction, Plummer is poised to finally win the Oscar.

Best Actress Supporting
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain , The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

My Prediction-Octavia Spencer-The Help-I think the supporting categories have their winners sewn up, Spencer is solid in this film, but I do wish Chastain would pick a different film.

Best Foreign Language Film
A Separation (Iran)
The Flowers Of War (China)
The Kid With The Bike (Belgium)
In The Land Of Blood and Honey (USA)
The Skin I Live In (Spain)

My Prediction-A Separation (Iran)- While this category is always a wild card, I think they will pick the obvious choice.

Best Animated Feature
TinTin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

My Prediction-Rango-This is the best in the category, and it will win.

Best Screenplay
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
Moneyball, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin

My Prediction-Midnight in Paris-They love Woody Allen!  I think this is where this film will be honored.  Moneyball has a shot, it's the second best screenplay in this category, but they will go with Woody.

Best Score
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
W.E., Abel Korzeniowski
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hugo, Howard Shore
War Horse, John Williams

My Predictions-The Artist-Ludovic-Bource-This won at the Critics Choice and I think it will win here too, but I would like to see Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross win (from this group).  I think this is an award this film will win at the Oscars too.

Best Original Song
“Hello Hello” – “Gnomeo & Juliet – Elton John
“Lay Your Head Down” – “Albert Nobbs” – Sinead O’Connor
“The Living Proof” – “The Help” – Mary J. Blige
“The Keeper” – “Machine Gun Preacher” – Gerard Butler
“Masterpiece” – “W.E.” – Madonna

My Prediction-"The Living Proof"-The Help-Mary J. Blige-No Idea here, but the song from The Help seems to make sense.

Award Shows: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

At the moment we are the middle of the busiest season for award shows.  This week the nominations for three major film awards are announced: the Broadcast Film Critics, Screen Actor's Guild (SAG), and the Golden Globes.  Starting January 15th the Globes will kick this off.  Mixed in the month of January and the winter months is the People's Choice Awards, and the Grammy Awards.  Most of the time people who do not follow award shows ask the question, "How do they pick the nominees?"  Each Academy or group has their own process, and some award shows are better than others.

I have always been a competitive person, and I usually jockey for my favorite films, performers, TV shows to be nominated, or win.  I would prefer win, but I can't always get what I want.  Many critics and award show experts state within their respective area of experience that there are some years when these Academies or group get it right, and other when they get it wrong.  I think award shows are incredibly interesting for several reasons 1) they highlight some of the best work in music, film, television etc (most of the time) and I love the arts 2) competition is fun! In the end the reward for the people involved should be intrinsic, and when actors or musicians feels as though they do their best they are motivated to do more and continue their "best" work or advance themselves further.  The reality is that award shows exist and here is what some of them do well and not so well.

This past year at 2011 Emmy Awards I was both pleasantly surprised with the Emmy nominees and the winners.  The role of an award show should be too honor the best, not the shows with the highest ratings like NCIS, but quality programming.  There were a few people who should have made the cut, but overall this was a solid list.  The Emmy's have continued to uphold this strength within the last few years.  How do they do it? According to the Emmy website "The members are divided into peer groups, determined by specific areas of expertise within the industry. For example, performers are in one peer group, makeup artists and hair stylists are in another, and camera and videotape operators are in another."  Once these groups narrow down the nominees the people in the major categories submit tapes and people watch and vote for the winners.  Seems simple, people watch the material and vote on it, thus providing everyone insight into both television shows and performances.  Sounds simple, right?  Well sometimes thing do not work out that way.


The Emmy Awards have continued to peak in terms of honoring quality material.  Television actors and shows are honored at both the SAG Awards and Golden Globes, but the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) has never relied on these nominations to determine who should become a nominee.  People like Margo Martindale from Justified and Archie Panjabi from The Good Wife never received  SAG or Globe nominations but went on to win their respective category for quality work.  The Emmy Awards are also held in September while SAG and the Globes are now both typically in January.


The Academy Awards have a similar process to the Emmy awards to determine their nominees.  According to the Academy website In late December ballots and copies of the Reminder List of Eligible Releases are mailed to around 6000 active members. For most categories, members from each of the branches vote to determine the nominees only in their respective categories (i.e. only directors vote for directors, writers for writers, actors for actors, etc.); there are some exceptions though in the case of certain categories, like Foreign Film, Documentary and Animated Feature Film in which movies are selected by special screening committees made up of members from all branches. In the special case of Best Picture, all voting members are eligible to select the nominees for that category. Foreign films must include English subtitles, and each country can only submit one film per year." The Academy Awards have done a good job honoring the "best" films" and "best" work for a film, but unlike the Emmy's that have improved  throughout the last couple of years the Academy Awards have had good and bad cycles.


One thing I have notices that hangs in the balance every year within the film industry is that each precursor tends to have an effect on the Academy Awards.  Adam Waldowski at goldderby.com stated " The only film to win Best Picture at the Oscars without at least contending for Best Ensemble at SAG was "Braveheart" in 1995 (the first year for this guild award). Of the 16 SAG champs, eight went on to win the Oscar, including "The King's Speech" last year. Among this year's leading contenders, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "Hugo" and "War Horse" were shut out by SAG.  This statistic may mean the Best Picture winner is almost predetermined now.   Adam stated "SAG also does a good job predicting acting nominees as well.  Last year 17 out of 20 SAG contenders lined up with the Oscars -- only Robert Duvall ("Get Low"),Hilary Swank ("Conviction") and Mila Kunis ("Black Swan") missed out on Oscar bids -- while in 2009 all of the SAG nominees but Diana Kruger ("Inglorious Basterds") vied for Oscars."  The critics award set the stage for some films to gain traction, while the Globes, and the guild awards seem to help guide and rubber stamp some nominees.  


The problematic part of this is that it appears as though voters are less likely to determine their own nominees, and they will likely vote with a trend.  I see this happening with Jessica Chatain.  Chastain is great in all of her films, but I think she is going to be nominated for her weakest performance in The Help.  I think she deserves a nomination for Take Shelter.  This process of so many awards before the actual Oscars appears to have made voters lazy.   This has also made them more rebellious, and not in a good way.


An example of being more rebellious was last year's Best Picture winner The King's Speech.  While Speech is not a bad film, it was not the best film of 2010.  The Social Network was honored by many critics groups, some guilds, and the Globes as the best film of the year.  The older voting Academy members seemed tired of rubber stamping the critics winner and played it safe last year.  2010 was also the year of Inception, The Black Swan, and many other daring films that made a statement.  The King's Speech's win seemed to say we have the power to honor what we want (this is both a good and a bad thing).  I respect the Academy to a point because they have gone against the grain in good ways, like within the writing, acting, and technical categories.  I also think honoring films like No Country for Old Men shows progression.  I think this year will an interesting year which will define this award show for a few years to come.  At least the Oscars are not hitting bottom like the Grammy Awards.


The Grammy Awards feel lost.  This year's Album of Year nominations help to prove there is something missing. The nominees are Adele for "21",much deserved, and the rest are Rihanna's "Loud," Bruno Mars' "Doo Woops and Hooligans," Lady Gaga's "Born this Way" and The Foo Fighter "Wasting Light."  This category is supposed to represent the Best Albums not the biggest album sales.  Adele, Rihanna, Bruno Mars, and Lady Gaga albums were among the top ten highest grossing albums.  This could be a coincidence, it could be the recording Academy trying to stay with the times and compete with the Video Music Awards, or even catering to mainly younger viewers. 


According to the Grammy website nominations are determined through through this process: "record companies and individuals may submit recordings to be nominated. Nominations are made online and a physical copy of the work is sent to the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences. Once a work is entered, reviewing sessions are held, by more than 150 experts from the recording industry, to determine whether the work is eligible and entered in the correct category for official nomination.The resulting list is circulated to all NARAS members, each of whom may vote to nominate in the general field (Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist) and in no more than nine out of 30 other fields on their ballots. The five recordings that earn the most votes in each category become the nominees. There may be more than five nominees if there is a tie in the nomination process.Whereas members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are generally invited to screenings or are sent DVDs of movies nominated for Oscars, NARAS members do not receive nominated recordings."


Since people are not sent recordings it seems as though this system is the most flawed, and makes sense that most of the highest selling albums are nominated instead of lesser known artists or albums.  My main problem with this year's nominees is that not only are they not the five best albums, but they only reflect two genres of music rock and pop (and maybe some dance).  The Grammy's usually do a job of honoring the best of different genres, but this throughout the 2000s this award show has become a glorified concert with awards tacked on.  Of the major three major award shows this one is in the worst condition, and needs more than just quick fixes, like combining the male and female vocal categories in each genre.


Nothing can be perfect, there are flaws in every system.  Some worse than others.  Look at the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and their nominating The Tourist for three awards, that's bad!  The problem is award shows become political either people win for wrong reasons, or they spend large amounts of money to achieve that win (that's another subject all on it's own).  As the beginning of the award season begins all I can hope for is some fun and excitement.

Golden Globe Predictions and Nominations Film and Television

This is the week of big award nominations!  Here are my Golden Globe Predictions:

Update: Down below will show my tally results and in parenthesis the nominations of films, performances etc., that I missed in parenthesis.

Best Film (Drama)
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (The Ides of March)
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

5 out of 6 

Best Actor (Drama)
George Clooney-The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio-J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling-Drive
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Brad Pitt-Moneyball

5 out of 5 

Best Actress (Drama)
Viola Davis-The Help
Kirsten Dunst-Melancholia (Glen Close-Albert Nobbs)
Elizabeth Olsen-Martha Marcy May Marlene (Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin

3 out 5 

Best Film (Comedy/Musical)
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn

5 out of 5 

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Johnny Depp-The Rum Diary (Bredan Gleeson-The Guard)
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Joseph Gordon Levitt-50/50
Ryan Gosling-Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson-Midnight in Paris

4 out of 5 

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Emma Stone-Crazy Stupid Love (Jodie Foster-Carnage)
Charlize Theron-Young Adult
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Kristin Wiig-Bridesmaids
Kate Winslet-Carnage

4 out of 5

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Ben Kingsley-Hugo (Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method)
Christopher Plummer-Beginners

4 out of 5 


Best Supporting Actress 
Bernice Bejo-The Artist
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids (Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs)
Jessica Chastain-The Help 
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Shaileen Woodley-The Descendants


4 out of 5


Best Director
Stephen Daldry-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (George Clooney-The Ides of March)
Michel Hazanavicius-The Artist
Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive (Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris)
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Steven Spielberg-War Horse 


3 out of 5


Best Screenplay
The Artist
The Descendants 
Hugo (Ides of March) 
Midnight in Paris 
Moneyball


4 out of 5


Best Score 
The Artist
Drive (Hugo) 
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (W.E.)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 
War Horse 


3 out of 5


Film prediction Tally 44 out of 56 

TV Awards

Best Drama Series
American Horror Story
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Homeland

5 out of 5

Best Actor Drama
Sean Bean-Game of Thrones (Jeremy Irons-The Borgias)
Steve Buscemi-Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer-Boss
Michael C. Hall-Dexter (Damien Lewis-Homeland)

3 out of 5

Best Actress Drama
Connie Britton-American Horror Story (Mireille Enos-The Killing)
Claire Danes-Homeland
Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife
Katey Sagel-Sons of Anarchy (Callie Thorne-Necessary Roughness)
Emily Van Camp-Revenge (Madeline Stowe-Revenge)

2.5 out of 5

Best Comedy/Musical Series
Glee
Louie (Enlightened)
Modern Family
The New Girl
30 Rock (Episodes)

3 out of 5 

Best Actor Comedy/Musical
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock
Louis CK-Louie (Thomas Jane-Hung)
Matt LeBlance-Episodes
Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory (Johnny Glaecki-The Big Bang Theory)
Elijah Wood-Wilfred (David Duchovney-Californication)

2.5 out of 5

Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Zooey Deschanel-The New Girl
Laura Dern-Enlightened
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Laura Linney-The Big C
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

5 out of 5


Final Tally: 21 out of 30